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Document Number: 6354

The On-Track Indicator as a Predictor of High School Graduation - The authors define an on-track student as one who at the end of the freshman year has: (1) accumulated five full course credits (the number to be promoted to grade 10 in Chicago); and (2) has no more than one semester “F” in English, math, social studies or science. They determine this is a highly predictive indicator of high school graduation, more accurate than a student’s background or 8th-grade academic achievement. The report also indicates the percentage of on-track students rose from 48% to 58% from 1995-96 to 2003-04, because students were attempting more credits during their freshman year and passing them at higher rates. The report concludes with ideas on how the results of the study can help schools improve their graduation and dropout rates. (Elaine M. Allensworth and John Q. Easton, Consortium on Chicago School Research at the University of Chicago, June 2005) [May experience a delay when downloading.]...

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