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The key demographic trends that are likely to impact the U.S. education system in the coming years include:
- Our population is becoming more and more racially diverse.
- Our population is rapidly aging.
- Postsecondary education demand will continue to grow.
- Disproportionately large numbers of children remain poor.
- Different states have sharply different projected futures.
Key Trend #1: Our population is becoming more racially diverse.
- Due largely to immigration and higher fertility rates among minorities, half of all school children will be non-Anglo American by 2025, and half of all Americans will be non-Anglo American by 2050. (Secondary Schools in a New Millennium, Harold Hodgkinson, 2000)
- Racial lines are also becoming more blurred. At least 40% of all Americans have had some racial mixing in the last three generations. Children of Hispanic immigrants, for instance, are marrying non-Hispanics 35% of the time. (Secondary Schools in a New Millennium, Harold Hodgkinson, 2000)
Potential long-range consequences: Low achievement of minority students is one of the most pressing problems in education. Today, the average black or Hispanic high school student achieves at about the same level as the average white student in the lowest quartile of white achievement. And black and Hispanic students are much less likely than white students to graduate from high school, acquire a college or advanced degree or earn a middle-class living. Erasing this “achievement gap” between racial groups will become an even more urgent priority in the future as minorities occupy a larger and larger share of the population.
Another important impact from increasing racial diversity is that more students whose primary language is other than English will be entering our schools. Pressure on policymakers to institute more bilingual education and English as a Second Language (ESL) programs is therefore likely to increase. To accommodate the likely rise in bilingual students, educators and policymakers will need to ensure that colleges of education prepare new teachers to work with increasingly diverse student populations and that professional development opportunities are available for experienced teachers to prepare them to work in diverse environments.
The blurring of racial lines that is already occurring – and can be expected to continue – as more children are born to interracial couples also poses difficulties for reporting accurate disaggregated data on student performance. For instance, tracking of student progress by racial group – as required under the federal No Child Left Behind Act – will become increasingly difficult for schools to manage as more students classify themselves as members of several different racial/ethnic groups.
Key Trend #2: Our population is rapidly aging.
- During the 20th century, the population age 65 and over increased tenfold, from 3.1 million in 1900, to 35 million in 2000. Rapid growth of the 65-and-over group will begin again in 2011 – when the first of the post-World War II baby-boom generation reaches age 65 – and will continue for many years. (Demographic Trends in the 20th Century, U.S. Census Bureau, November 2002)
Potential long-range consequences: An aging population means there will be a growing number of citizens who no longer have school-age children. Because citizens tend to vote based on their own self-interest, this could mean that it will be harder for schools to rally public support in the future for many school programs, including bond initiatives. This is especially significant because the elderly tend to vote at much higher rates than younger citizens.
To help address this issue, and to build broader societal support for schools in general, policymakers and education leaders will need to take steps to more actively involve older citizens in the schools. Such steps include developing effective communications strategies targeting to ensure that older citizens remain connected to their schools and recruiting older citizens as volunteers to tutor or participate in classroom or other school activities. These types of activities will be necessary to ensure broad community support for the mission of schools, and will help produce an electorate more inclined to support initiatives to improve the quality of education in their communities.
While reaching out to older citizens will become increasingly important, policymakers and education leaders will also need to work harder to build active support for schools from younger citizens. To build such support, schools will need to be more effective at instilling their students with the knowledge and values that will make them active participants in our democracy. To combat low voting rates among young citizens for instance, schools will need to develop more effective civic education programs that teach students the importance of voting and participating in the political process.
Sources: Secondary Schools in a New Millennium, Harold Hodgkinson, National Association of Secondary School Principals, 2000; Ten Trends: Educating Children for a Profoundly Different Future, Gary Marx, Education Research Service, 2000.
Key Trend #3: Postsecondary education demand will continue to grow.
- At current postsecondary participation rates, colleges are likely to see an increase of more than 2 million students by 2015. (Closing the College Participation Gap, ECS, to be published in fall 2003)
- Between 1940 and 2002, the number of people aged 25-29 completing at least a bachelor’s degree has risen steadily from around 6% to almost 30%. (Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2003)
Potential long-range consequences: In the next decade, it is likely that every state will face a mounting demand for access to quality higher education opportunities. This rising demand is fueled not only by population demographics. It is due equally to the fact that, more and more, economic self-sufficiency and the ability to actively participate in our democracy require knowledge and training beyond high school. In a time when many manufacturing jobs are located overseas and service-sector jobs fail to pay living wages, a college education is an important gateway to economic and social stability and to breaking through racial and ethnic barriers.
Unfortunately, recent data show that there is a significant and growing gap in U.S. postsecondary participation rates. To match the college participation rates in the best-performing states, postsecondary access nationwide would need to be expanded by more than 10 million students by 2015 alone. To close this “participation gap” and to meet the ever-growing demand for higher education, policymakers will need to rethink how to ensure that students are prepared for postsecondary coursework and can make informed decisions on where and how to apply to the higher education institutions that best suit their needs and abilities.
One tool that policymakers should consider using is known as “P-16.” A P-16 education system requires collaboration between all education levels (early learning, K-12, postsecondary) to ensure that, as students progress from one level to the next, they are mastering the skills needed to succeed. It requires, for instance, consistent communication between the higher education community and the K-12 education system regarding the skills students must master to succeed in college. Such a system has the potential to create a nationwide student body more capable of getting into and graduating from college.
Policymakers will also need to develop new and creative ways to help give more students access to higher education. One of the most significant barriers to such access is the inability of many students to afford the cost of going to college. Such costs have been steadily rising and, due to reduced federal and state funding and revenues, a college education now costs nearly double what it did 20 years ago.
Key Trend #4: Disproportionately large numbers of children remain poor.
- Approximately 38% of American children under the age of 18 now live in “low-income” families (less than $28,500 for a family of three with one child).
- Some 16% – almost 12 million – of all U.S. children live in poverty (less than $14,255 for a family of three with one child). About 19% of children under age 6 live in poverty.
- The child poverty rate is highest for African-American (30%) and Hispanic (29%) children. The poverty rate for white children is 13%.
- From 1975 to 2001, the U.S. child poverty rate did not go below 16%. For much of that time, the child poverty rate was at or above 20%.
Sources: (Low Income Children in the United States: A Brief Demographic Profile, National Center for Children in Poverty, March 2003); (Child Poverty in the States: Levels and Trends from 1979 to 1998, National Center for Children in Poverty, 2000)
Potential long-range consequences: As large numbers of children continue to grow up in poverty, states will face a vast array of problems, including how to ensure that such children enter school prepared to succeed . To help meet this challenge, policymakers must develop policies that provide all children access to appropriate, high-quality health care, child care and education opportunities. This may include policies promoting full-day kindergarten, state-funded pre-kindergarten, high-quality early care and education settings, and comprehensive services for young children, including physical health, mental health and nutrition.
Ensuring that schools in poor communities offer equal opportunities for low-income students to gain a high-quality education is another issue that policymakers must continue to address. Unfortunately, many of the nation’s hard-to-staff schools are located in high-poverty areas that offer comparatively low salaries and lack the amenities with which other districts attract the best teachers. Typically, such schools have high turnover rates and a high percentage of relatively new teachers because more experienced teachers, whose seniority gives them greater choice in their teaching assignment, tend to go elsewhere. This makes it difficult not only for the schools to maintain stability, but also to develop a strong organizational culture that supports learning.
Continued high numbers of poor students also will mean that schools in many areas will be confronted with large numbers of children who are “at risk” of failing at school. A child may be at risk because of one factor or a combination of causes, but children who live in poverty, are disabled, have limited-English proficiency and/or are raised in dysfunctional or abusive homes are at a higher risk of failing in school and beyond. Research suggests that many of these students need more than just instructional services to succeed in school. Policymakers will therefore need to continue developing comprehensive programs – such as mentoring/tutoring services, after-school programs and summer school programs – that integrate a series of services to help children succeed.
Key Trend #5: Different states and regions of the country may have sharply different projected futures.
- Ten states (Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Illinois, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York and Texas) are home to 90% of the country’s Hispanic population. (Secondary Schools in a New Millennium, Harold Hodgkinson, 2000)
- From 1979 to 1998, the child poverty rate increased significantly in 13 states (Arizona, California, Idaho, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia and Wyoming) and the District of Columbia. But in a handful of states (Arkansas, Illinois, New Jersey and South Dakota) the child poverty rate decreased by one-third or more. For a map depicting state poverty levels, click here. For state-by-state poverty percentages, click click here. (National Center for Children in Poverty, 2000)
- Of the nation's more than 200 persistently poor counties, 195 are rural. Rural poverty is most severe in six regions of the country: Central Appalachia, the Deep South, the Rio Grande border, the Southwest, the Central Valley of California and the American Indian reservations in the Northern Plains states. (America’s Forgotten Children: Child Poverty in Rural America, Save The Children, 2002)
- Suburban areas will see major increases in enrollments and student diversity. Enrollments in small towns and rural areas, however, will remain flat and the populations in these areas will see increases in the percentage of elderly residents. (Educational Demographics: What Teachers Should Know, Harold Hodgkinson, 2001)
Potential long-range consequences: Because states will experience wide variations in their population characteristics, strategies will need to be specifically tailored to address the unique needs and circumstances of each jurisdiction. Policymakers in each state will need to closely follow nationwide demographic trends, but will need to pay special attention to the evolving trends within their own specific regions and states. Such trends, which can vary greatly based on a state’s racial characteristics, immigration rates, poverty rates and the makeup of its rural and urban areas, will greatly impact how decisions should be made to strengthen and improve the current system of education.
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